On Friday, President Trump took to his Truth Social platform to announce deals with Russia and China. These deals have nothing to do with trade, nor do they have anything to do with Ukraine, Taiwan, or any other of China’s and Russia’s neighbors. This deal, according to President Trump, involves a pledge by those two nations to avoid selling any weapons or munitions to floundering Iran.
Here’s the catch: Neither of those nations has the United States’ best interests at heart, which brings up the question: Will they abide by any such deal?
In the case of Russia, the more recent weapons trade with Iran has been in the opposite direction, in which Russia, as early as 2022, started buying Shahed drones from Iran, and signed a license agreement with Iran to manufacture those drones in Russia. The best argument for Russia keeping this possible deal with President Trump and the United States may well be that Russia can’t spare any weapons or munitions right now, due to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.
But China? That may be another story. China was a major supplier of arms and munitions to Iran in the 1980s, most notably during the Iran-Iraq War. That trade tapered off some in the 1990s and into the new century, but it didn’t stop. Today, China still supplies Iran with some dual-use technologies, like electronics, chemicals, and so forth that might be used in technology like drones and missiles. Some U.S. and Israeli intelligence reports indicate China may also be doing some under-the-table sales of things like man-portable surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS) and other weapons systems.
This is a matter in which Chairman Xi’s word should be taken with an entire 55-gallon drum full of salt. And who knows what North Korea might do? The Hermit Kingdom is always hungry for currency, and unlike Iran, they already have nuclear weapons capability.
President Trump sounds an optimistic tone with these world leaders, but if there was ever a case that merited “trust, but verify,” or better, “don’t trust, verify twice,” this is it. And there’s another thing: The Department of War may have closed down Iranian shipping, but Iran also shares some long, long land borders, including with another Islamic terror-state: Afghanistan.